The national government’s decision of enforcing the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), which shut down businesses, schools, and disrupted daily life, has proven to be critical in reducing transmission and deaths due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), according to a report published by the University of the Philippines (UP).
UP’s study, Covid-19 forecasts in the Philippines: Post-ECQ Report claimed the rate of virus transmission has been “decreasing” since the beginning of the quarantine in March until May.
“ECQ was successful despite limited testing and contact tracing in the country,” the report read.
However they noted that “it does not mean that the positive trend is irreversible” and that the spread of the virus in the country is “not yet controlled” despite other provinces displaying “decelerating trend”.
The report said that for the National Capital Region (NCR) and Cebu City, the number of new confirmed cases remains “very high”. The risk levels in Batangas, Davao City, and Zamboanga City are also “still significant”. They urged the government to maintain stringent protocols in both places.
“Even in areas under GCQ (general community quarantine) or those not under community quarantine, vigilance is still needed in order to ensure that any new cases are immediately detected and new outbreaks prevented. Our goal ultimately is not just to flatten the curve but to bend it downwards,” the report explained.
“The threat of Covid-19 will still remain unless a vaccine is widely available. We need to provide criteria or a set of triggers not only for de-escalation but also to escalate restrictions that are clearly explained to the public,” it said.
They also reiterated a previous recommendation to capacitate the government for further expand testing as the country reopens certain sectors of the economy.
Nevertheless, it recognized the government’s efforts for effectively increasing testing to up to 10,000 tests per day. Currently, the goal is to conduct 30,000 tests by the end of May.
“While this arguably may have caused an increase in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, it has given us a better picture of the state of the pandemic in the country that could serve as basis for the recalibration of the restrictions in the next few days,” the report read.
Further, the report also suggested commissioning studies on people’s mobilities in areas under quarantine as a basis for policy decisions. They called on the Congress to allocate funds for further scientific research on the virus to develop potential treatment and new platforms of testing,
The report was written by UP professors and OCTA research fellows/associate Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, with contributions from UP professors Erwin Alampay, Rodrigo Angelo Ong, Benjamin Vallejo Jr., Ideacorp Inc. CEO Emmanuel Lallana, and Civika Asian Development Academy Managing Director Elmer Soriano.
