Flattening the curve in PH might not happen in July nor August, UP expert says

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With the continuous surge of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, it is unlikely to flatten the curve or cut down the number of infections in July or August, an expert from the University of the Philippines shared on Thursday.

About 2,000 new COVID-19 cases are reported daily out of some 20,000 tests per day, said Guido David of the UP Institute of Mathematics.

The reproduction rate of the virus, a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread, is at 1.7 percent in Metro Manila, considerably higher than 1.1 percent reproduction rate in the central province of Cebu and affects the spread of the disease in neighboring regions like Calabarzon and Central Luzon, he said.

The curve may be flattened “maybe by September” if appropriate pandemic protocols are put into place and work, including localized lockdowns and ramped up isolation measures for patients, he added.

The extension of the general community quarantine in Metro Manila “will help” flatten the curve by limiting the movement of its 12 million people, including asymptomatic carriers of the respiratory disease, he said.

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