Researchers on Saturday projected that Philippines’ total number of COVID-19 infections could hit 200,000 or more by the end of August despite a slower trend during the modified enhanced community quarantine.
This is 20,000 more than the previous projection, which a research team from the University of the Philippines explained was due to their assumption that MECQ will continue until the end of the month.
“‘Yung 180,000 na projection namin noon it was lower-bound na ina-assume na mag-cocontinue ‘yungMECQ until the end of the month,” said Professor Guido David, UP OCTA Research fellow. “Sa ngayonactually nakikita natin more than 200,000 by end of August even with the slowing down of the trajectory.”
[The 180,000 projection before was lower-bound, assuming that MECQ continues until the end of the month. Now, actually, we are seeing more than 200,000 by end of August even with the slowing down of the trajectory.]
However, the professor noted that the enforcement of the modified enhanced community quarantine during the first half of August helped slow down the rise in cases. The reproduction number – or the average number of people that a person can infect – decreased from 1.5 to 1.15, David pointed out.
He said the slower trend may still continue even if areas revert to the more relaxed general community quarantine, given that more protocols such as localized lockdowns and improved testing are being observed.
“Actually pag-inaverage natin, we’re getting mga 4,000 cases per day,” he explained. “‘Yung iba doon sa 6,000 ay actually backlog ‘yun ng Department of Health.”
[When we average it, we’re getting 4,000 cases per day. The others from the 6,000 are part of the backlog of the Department of Health.]
However, he stressed that the numbers do not mean the Philippines is winning over the pandemic.
“Mataas pa rin ‘yung positivity rate – it’s almost 20 percent – so it means marami pang cases na hindi natin nakikita,” David warned. Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people testing positive.
[The positivity rate is still high – it’s almost 20 percent – so it means there are a lot cases that we have not yet seen.]
