An academic paper published on the website of Ateneo de Manila University suggests that about three million COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may have gone undetected.
Researcher Jan Frederick Cruz in his study found that COVID-19 cases in the Philippines from April to June may have been 2,812,891 instead of the reported 34,354. This means that only 1.22 percent of the infections were detected during that time.
The non-peer reviewed research used epidemiological and statistical modeling to estimate underreporting in the Philippines.
Cruz’s paper also looked into the COVID-19 situation in four other Southeast Asian states using the same methodology employed to determine the prevalence of the coronavirus in the Philippines.
The researcher warned that the “conservative figures” create a false sense of complacency within the community in terms of transmission of COVID-19 and “may reduce the urgency to act among public and private stakeholders and key decision-makers.”
He added that “low detection rates undermine government efforts to formulate effective, comprehensive, and credible public health and economic policies.”
Ultimately, these findings, according to the author, reinforce the recommendation of the World Health Organization to test, trace and isolate, and for the government to devote resources to do these to avoid “long-term health and economic distress.”
