Experts expect rise of NCR COVID-19 reproduction rate in 1-2 days

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A group of experts have projected a rise in COVID-19 reproduction rate in the National Capital Region in the next days, which could mean more individuals infected with the novel virus.

Prof. Guido David of the OCTA Research Team said the reproduction number is currently at 0.99, and could go up in the next few days, “very likely” because of the holiday season.

Reproduction (Ro) number refers to the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to.

“An Ro below one means that the trend in new cases is downward, while an Ro above one means the trend is upward. The increase due to the holidays was very likely,” said David.

When the Ro rises up in a few days, it will be up to the local officials and health providers to prepare for a surge of cases, he added.

“The goal is to not let this number increase even further, because when that happens, cases will start piling up. Right now, we are counting on the preparation of the LGUs (local government units) and the healthcare system for this expected surge in cases.”

According to the research team, the lowest reproduction rate was at Ro = 0.66, which was recorded on October 21.

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