The OCTA Research Group said Sunday that the latest rate of COVID-19 infections in the National Capital Region (NCR)-Plus bubble, the country’s central “high risk” area, is on a “clear downward trajectory.”
OCTA claimed its monitoring for the week of April 18 to 24 showed a slowdown in the increase of new infections. It highlighted the effectiveness of imposing lockdowns in Metro Manila and its adjoining provinces of Laguna, Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal since March.
OCTA noted that the reproduction number in Metro Manila decreased to 0.93.
“The average number of new COVID-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 3,841 over the past week, with a one week growth rate of -20 percent,” said the research group in its latest report.
“The current average is also 30 percent lower than the average of 5,552 during the peak of the surge three weeks ago,” it added.
The OCTA group had previously called for the implementation of a hard lockdown in the epicenter of the pandemic in the country ahead of the Lenten holidays in the last week of March, sounding off the alarm of a big surge in new COVID-19 cases.
Malacañang responded by declaring a return to enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in NCR-Plus from March 29 to April 4, then subsequently extended it to April 11. This was followed by the declaration of modified ECQ until April 30.
“The positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 19 percent, from an average of 26,120 tests per day,” OCTA research fellows said.
“Three weeks ago, the positivity rate was as high as 25 percent. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR decreased to 61 percent while ICU bed occupancy also decreased to 71 percent.”
As the number of new coronavirus disease infections per day continues to go down in the NCR, OCTA noted how the number of new cases in all 17 LGUs in NCR had also decreased compared with the previous week’s figures.
“Solid downward trends (with at least two consecutive weeks of negative one-week growth rate) were observed in Pasay, Manila, Navotas, Muntinlupa and Caloocan. Negative growth rates were also observed in Cavite, Rizal, Laguna and Bulacan,” it said.
