MANILA – According to the OCTA Research Group, the number of daily Covid-19 cases may decline to 5,000 to 6,000 by the end of October.
In a televised program, OCTA associate Guido David also stated that due to the backlog, daily new cases may hit 10,000 within the week.
“Temporary lang ‘yan, pero generally ‘yung trend natin pababa na (That’s temporary, but generally our case trend is declining),” he said.
David claimed that reproduction number nationwide is 0.64 and the seven-day average of cases is at 8,400.
“May mga lugar pa rin na ngayon lang nagkakaroon ng surge o pagsimula ng pagtaas ng kaso (There are places which are experiencing surge in cases just now),” he added.
According to the most recent Department of Health (DOH) data, the hospital utilization rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has dropped to 47%, although intensive care unit utilization has remained high at 59%.
The seven-day average of Covid-19 cases in NCR is 1,681, with a 10% positivity rate, David stated.
“This is a very good reproduction number, positivity rate has improved and considered moderate but the target is still 5 percent,” he said.
The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR, or the number of people infected per 100,000 population, is 11.87.
Such ADAR is “high risk,” according to David, but it “could go down to moderate by next week.”
Due to the improvement of the Covid-19 case data, NCR’s Alert Level was downgraded from Level 4 to Level 3 on Saturday.
The DOH logged 6,913 new Covid-19 infections on Sunday at 4 p.m., increasing the country’s active cases to 81,641, while 10,237 new recoveries raised the total to 2,598,052.
