MANILA – Based on the 1948-2021 climatological record of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), two or three tropical cyclones are likely to form within or enter the country’s area of responsibility in September.
The names of the next tropical cyclone will be “Inday,” “Josie,” and “Karding.”
According to PAGASA, cyclone tracks in September are mostly “landfalling” or crossing the Philippines but still some cyclones are “recurving” or do not directly affect the country.
In September, the four most common climatological tracks are:
* Recurving tropical cyclones in the northeastern part of the Philippine area of responsibility or PAR (non-landfalling) moving towards Japan or Korea (less likely to enhance the southwest monsoon activity during passage).
* Recurving tropical cyclones towards the northwestern part of PAR (non-landfalling) moving towards Taiwan (may enhance the southwest monsoon activity during passage).
* Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing northern and extreme northern Luzon; moving towards Hong Kong or China.
* Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing the southern parts of Luzon; moving towards Vietnam.
PAGASA stated that it anticipates near normal rainfall throughout the country this month, however, the “probability leans toward above normal (40 to 50 percent).”
It added that “generally near to above normal rainfall conditions are predicted throughout the country and the probability for above normal is highly likely” from October to December.
The La Niña has “re-strengthened,” according to PAGASA, and has a 60 percent chance of prevailing until the from December 2022 to February 2023 season.
It was stated that La Nia is responsible for the excessive rainfall that triggers floods and landslides in some parts of the country, particularly in regions prone to these dangers.
